SONE Newsletter 299 – July 2024

Posted by Wade Allison on 19 July 2024 in Newsletters

Tagged with: ADVANCE Act, AGM, Australia, Capenhurst, Great British Nuclear, Keir Starmer, Korea, SMR, Turkey.

This month

Chairman’s Editorial: Climate Challenge for the New Government

Britain, we are told, has just experienced its warmest spring quarter on record. Not because of hot, sunny days but because of fewer cool nights. This seems to be due to unusual jet stream behaviour and abnormal weather formations over the Atlantic. But could this be the herald of more ominous changes ahead?

The British Isles are nearer to the North Pole than our mild climate would suggest. What keeps our weather so mild and equable is the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic. Without it we would freeze in winter. However, about 30 years ago, some Danish observers noted that a regular ice formation south of Greenland was no longer forming in winter. It was suggested that this ice finger normally freezes out pure water, leaving the heavier brine to sink in the deep ocean. Over a vast area of the North Atlantic, this acts as a huge pump, helping to generate the Gulf Stream. Then, just last year, another team of Danish observers detected a slowing of the Gulf Stream.

Are we about to lose the phenomenon that prevents us freezing in winter?

There have been reports from deep underground temperature profiles which suggest that when the earth nears a maximum in its temperature cycle, North West Europe finds itself plunged into its own mini ice age, brought on by the failure of the Gulf Stream. Are we about to see this happen again? The Irish and North Seas frozen; the British Isles under deep snow for a good part of the year?

The creation of vast new ice and snow fields, in North West Europe, would reflect part of the sun’s energy back into space, changing the earth’s energy balance and perhaps leading to a cooling phase in the global energy cycle. The noted environmentalist, the late James Lovelock, postulated that the earth had its own mechanisms for correcting disturbances in its delicately balanced equilibrium, his Gaia Theory. Maybe we are about to see a dramatic manifestation of Lovelock’s theory.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, one has to ask what effect the mini-ice age would have on the British people. Will our Government be fully prepared for the shocks that await us? What would be the impact on food production and distribution? How would our transport systems cope? Would our energy supplies meet the new demand?

A fleet of nuclear power stations would certainly help!

Maybe our inclement weather and a frozen English Channel would finally solve the migrant boat crisis! Indeed, would there be a rush to emigrate these shores?

Plenty for our new, incoming Government to ponder!

Neville Chamberlain, CBE

For your diary: AGM on Oct 21st and provisional site visit on Oct 24th

The date of the 2024 AGM is set for 21st October. This year it will be held online by Zoom with a brief formal session followed by a panel discussion, like the one we held during the lockdown. Details are being discussed; the Committee hopes that the panel will include young people, politicians and those in the industry.

For 24th October we have provisionally arranged a site visit to Capenhurst https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/urenco-uk to see where reactor fuel is enriched and to hear about its history, technical advances and plans for the production of HALEU fuel (with U-235 concentrations up to 20%). The visit would begin at 10.30, include a sandwich lunch and finish mid afternoon. Numbers would be limited; those interested are invited to make a provisional booking by emailing John Assheton communications@sone.org.uk right away.

Some in Australia look to UK

The leader of the Opposition in Australia posted this image in an email critical of their Government’s anti-nuclear policy:

Italy invests in nuclear education

So Italy has the message that they should invest in education for their young people https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Partnership-aims-to-boost-Italian-nuclear-educatio

SMR submissions to Great British Nuclear

Great British Nuclear has received submissions to the Invitation to Submit Initial Tender process for our Small Modular Reactor technology selection programme. Here are the links to the statements from the five vendors regarding their submissions.

The sixth, EDF, pulled out of the competition. They have said that their work on an SMR continues but it is being re-designed.

By the way, have you noticed how Great British Nuclear led the way? Now we are to have Great British Energy and Great British Railways. Unfortunately they don’t sound so convincing.

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power wins Czech contest

The bid was for at least two, and up to four, nuclear power units. The APR1000, was preferred to that from EDF’s EPR1200, with both companies stressing their agreements with Czech suppliers to localise work if selected. The Czech government said that if two units were contracted, the KHNP bid was for a cost of around CZK200 billion per unit (USD8.6 billion). KHNP aims to solidify long-term cooperation spanning approximately 100 years, covering construction through to operation.
From a report in World Nuclear News 17/7/24.

In the USA – the ADVANCE Act

The ADVANCE legislation, enacted by President Biden on 9th July with bipartisan support, is intended to bring a more open policy to nuclear development, deployment and international engagement in the USA. The US NRC is directed to update its mission statement to “include that licensing and regulation of the civilian use of radioactive materials and nuclear energy be conducted in a manner that is efficient and does not unnecessarily limit– (1) the civilian use of radioactive materials and deployment of nuclear energy; or (2) the benefits of civilian use of radioactive materials and nuclear energy technology to society.” Given that high cost and excessive project duration are the biggest objections left to new nuclear deployment, that is an extremely important direction from Congress. When that happens, there will be a strong case for reviewing and removing requirements that are described by the regulators themselves as being “not necessary for adequate protection.”

In short, the cautious expensive bureaucratic regulation built up over 70 years for large PWRs is required to be slimmed down and preparations made for the rapid licencing of many reactors, large and small. Some voices are not convinced that this will be effective.

Rod Adams, writing from Florida, notes “My nomination for the first such requirement is [the withdrawal of] the Aircraft Impact Assessment rule.”

The US administration, itself, leaves no doubt of its determination to initiate change. As US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Grantholm, said recently at the start-up of Vogtle-4. “To reach our goal of net zero by 2050, we have to at least triple our current nuclear capacity in this country. That means we’ve got to add 200 more gigawatts by 2050. Okay, two down, 198 to go!”

To give an impression of the streamlining introduced in the design of their AP-1000 Westinghouse say:

Meanwhile, US NRC has approved a proposed rule establishing voluntary alternative physical security requirements for advanced reactors. The proposed rule would apply to non-light-water reactors and light-water SMRs that will have smaller power outputs and smaller inventories of fission products than traditional large light-water reactors in use today, and would allow such facilities to use physical security requirements appropriate to the risk posed by their technology instead of the prescriptive requirements in current NRC regulations, which based on large light-water reactors. The proposed rule is to be published in the Federal Register for public comment.
(World Nuclear News 19th June.)
[Ed: proposed, voluntary, alternative – sounds rather unconvincingly iffy. Reducing the regulatory process, its length and cost, will hit jobs, of course.]

Data centres and their growing hunger

A new story begins as the energy appetite of data centres expand dramatically with the advent of AI. These centres are developing ambitions for their own dedicated power supplies. For instance, an on-site wholly engaged nuclear reactor to provide a more stable, cheaper and reliable service – one not subject to the fluctuations of an extended grid afflicted by renewables. https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Talen-refutes-objection-to-Susquehanna-data-centre Some reports of this kind already appearing.

Turkey and UK, a post by Richard Ollington

Türkiye and the UK’s current nuclear build programs have many similarities and surprising differences. Here’s what I discovered at the 10th annual Nuclear Power Plants Expo & Summit (NPPES) in Istanbul:

Similarities

  • Both countries aim for over 20GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.
  • Both countries currently consume approximately 300TWh/year.
  • Both countries started their nuclear constructions in 2018, with Türkiye’s Akkuyu only 8 months before the UK’s Hinkley Point C (HPC).

Differences

  • Construction time While Akkuyu is expected to start operations next year, HPC is forecast to need another 5-7 years. Both projects are the first of their kind in their respective countries. Both projects used foreign reactor designs. While the UK may have benefitted from higher levels of localization than Türkiye, Rosatom which is building Akkuyu is doing a far faster job than EDF Energy in the UK. The West has a lot of catching up to do.

  • Cost Akkuyu will be more powerful than HPC (4.5GW vs 3.3GW) yet has much lower headline costs ($25bn vs $42bn). Türkiye’s shorter construction time only explains part of this. Before construction began, Akkuyu was costed at $5bn less than HPC. Despite over a decade of high inflation, a poor national credit rating, and relatively small debt markets, Türkiye appears to have secured a better cost of capital.

    While the UK primarily values nuclear for 30 years of electricity generation, Russia could price itself lower as it also placed higher value on geopolitical gains, supply chain strengthening, and +80-year timescales.

  • National nuclear ambition Türkiye, blessed with better renewable potential than the UK, is nonetheless more aggressive on nuclear than the UK. Despite cheaper, sparsely populated land, a grid demand profile better aligned with intermittent supply, and more reliable and lower LCOE solar than the UK’s wind, Türkiye plans to add twice as much nuclear to its grid by 2035 than the UK.

    Türkiye is not more aggressive on nuclear because its nuclear offers that much better value than renewables, nor because it’s more committed to meeting climate targets or plans for demand to grow that much faster than in the UK, but because it is more actively pro-growth.

    The UK has allowed the free market to drive electricity generation down for 20 consecutive years, despite the view that generation needs to at least triple by 2050 to reach net zero. In contrast, Türkiye has actively sought to grow electricity generation from all sources, recognizing that abundant power underpins its priority of a growing economy and makes net zero more attainable. While the UK’s approach to electricity markets is siloed, Türkiye is holistically integrating electricity market considerations with its national economic strategy.

History Corner

By Ian Currie: A correction to the Calder Hall item in newsletter 298.

I must take issue with your statement ‘Calder Hall was the world’s first full-scale nuclear power station, put into operation in the UK on October 16th, 1956.’ The first such station was that at Obninsk in the Russian Federation (RF). Obninsk nuclear power station generated power for the industry and population of Obninsk which was a town/city to the west of Moscow and the centre of RF R&D into the nuclear (both peaceful and military) and space fields of science and as such it was a top secret location and not even on RF maps. This changed when the RF got wind of the impending start-up of Calder Hall NPS which was hardly surprising as it was to be done by Queen Elizabeth II, and so the Obninsk power network infrastructure was quickly linked into the RF national power network infrastructure. This resulted in electricity generated as a result of nuclear power being fed into the RF national grid before it occurred in the UK.

I personally visited Obninsk in the Yeltsin era and gave a presentation in the palatial conference and exhibition centre. It arose as an initiative of the EBRD which,following the collapse of the rouble, was concerned that further deterioration of the economic situation in the RF might lead to the RF nuclear expertise etc. ‘falling into the wrong hands’. To this end the EBRD contracted EdF to organise and manage groups of scientists in the EEC to liaise with similar groups from the RF on nuclear topics of interest. I was working in NNC and we won the right to liaise with an RF group on the impact of ALARA (or as we in the UK said ALARP) on nuclear power station designs. My group got on extremely well with our RF ‘comrades’ but this wasn’t always the case as a French and RF set-up fell out spectacularly set , but perhaps t’was ever thus. We found that the Russians were very much like the British, times were hard and uncertain but they never grumbled (well not much), queued as necessary in an orderly manner, the men dressed a bit scruffily but the women were always well and neatly dressed, and they read a lot, particularly Dickens and Kipling. When the relationship was drawing to a close they presented me with a book of Kipling’s poems with the LH page in Russian and the RH page in English. For myself on their last visit we toured Liverpool as they were keen to visit the Beatles museum. One of them said that he learnt his English largely through the Beatles songs whilst at university. The songs were judged to be subversive and non-acceptable, so like all good graduates they devoured them avidly. For myself I visited Kalinen NPS and caught a train at Bologoya station which in the story Anna Karenina is where Anna and Count Vronsky fell in love beside a burning brazier during an engine refuelling stop. Happy days indeed.

Wade Allison, Hon. Sec.
Oxford, 18 July 2024